Doug Gottlieb Has No Regard For Human Life... Or At Least NBA Draft Prospects' Feelings
While cruising on down the information superhighway last night looking for links for this morning's link dump, I happened upon the various viewpoints of ESPN's Doug Gottlieb regarding the upcoming NBA draft class.
As you may know, I typically write about the positive stuff - the upside, the potential, the other-sweet-draft-buzz-words - that I see in players when analyzing them. Doug Gottlieb apparently isn't as big on the positive stuff, however, deciding to lead off his ESPN Insider column with a "buyers-beware guide to next month's NBA draft."
I guess it's fair, and somebody was going to write it anyway, but it came off to me as a bit over-the-top. Still, it's interesting stuff to read, analyze and attempt disagree with as we further formulate our opinions regarding next month's NBA Draft.
After the jump, I pulled Gottlieb's most egregious quotes to scrutinize.
Daniel Orton
Gottlieb's take: "... the "Carfax" report says he is just emotionally immature at the moment, and to throw him to the wolves in the top 15 of this draft seems foolish at best."
Draft Express kind of corroborates Gottlieb's sentiment... except they blame it on his father:
Perhaps more worrying is the recent behind the scenes chatter about potential off-court concerns. The fingerprints of Orton's father were all over his every move on the recruiting trail, in reported heated discussions with Kentucky's coaching staff about his inconsistent playing time throughout the season, and now regarding his draft declaration decision, to the point that some wonder whether this could become a distraction for the team that picks him down the road. While Orton certainly comes off as a thoughtful and intelligent young man, teams will need to study these issues and draw their own conclusions, especially since he's such a work in progress that will only be able to reach his full potential down the road if he's fully dialed into the task.
Eric Bledsoe
Gottlieb's Take: Orton's Kentucky teammate, Eric Bledsoe, is a Westbrook-type of athlete, but he is not close to the finished prospect that even Westbrook was after two years in college. Bledsoe has a very average handle, is a streaky (though improving) shooter and not only did he play very little at the point, but the team played very poorly with him leading the way instead of John Wall.
Interestingly enough, Gottlieb seemed to refute the Westbrook issues earlier in the exact same column:
Russell Westbrook was a major risk at the No. 4 spot in the draft. He had not really been a point guard at UCLA and in truth his explosive game only took shape during his second, and last, college season (he averaged just nine minutes a game as a freshman). Oklahoma City Thunder GM Sam Presti took a supreme risk in drafting Westbrook and handing him the reins, but despite a high turnover rate and a work-in-progress jump shot, Westbrook has been as or more dynamic than most -- myself included -- could have imagined.
I'm not saying that Bledsoe is the next Russell Westbrook (I'm not saying he isn't, either), but I don't think too much should be read into the limited minutes Bledsoe played at the point.
Wesley Johnson
He could not shoot over (Stanley) Robinson, he's not a good ball handler, and though he played the 4 most of his college career, he does not have great post moves. His length, shooting accuracy and team play will make him a nice addition to any NBA team, but remember that he is 22, has already spent a year at prep school and a year redshirting at Syracuse. Just not sure he's worthy of a top-5 pick.
Did Johnson really play at the power forward spot most of his college career? I apparently need to do my homework.
I'm fine with his age, by the way, but his upside probably is a bit limited. Still, he's ready to contribute now - which should mean something.
Gordon Hayward
Has anyone actually looked at Gordon Hayward's shooting numbers? The guy who is often compared to Mike Dunleavy Jr., shot just 25 percent from 3 in Horizon League play last season and struggled to get a step against Kyle Singler in the national championship game, making just 2 of 11 shots.
As a freshman, Hayward shot 44.8% from beyond the arc. Unlike last season at Butler, I doubt he's going to be expected to be the top scoring option any time that he's on the floor for his first few NBA seasons - and when that happens, it seems he can shoot just fine.
Greg Monroe
Greg Monroe does not want to be a superstar. While he is very smart, savvy and skilled, his lack of aggressiveness in terms of demanding the ball and taking over in key situations is at least troubling.
I guess I don't see this as a huge negative. He's "smart, savvy and skilled" - who cares if he's not a superstar?
Other players Gottlieb's not very high on (I'd excerpt something from everybody, but it is Insider so I don't want them to delete my account): Solomon Alabi and Elliot Williams.
He also doesn't think Evan Turner should fall out of the top two, does think that Luke Babbitt is the "Western version of Turner", believes Gani Lawal is better than you think and last, but not least, Greivis Vasquez is a second round steal.
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I'm not going to do the research
But I’m pretty TAFKAMikeBourn also likes Vasquez.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say he’s wrong on 7 of these, right on 4… That’s not that bad, actually.
I write about basketball players with Ridiculous Upside. I know you'll love it.
by Scott Schroeder on May 5, 2010 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm thumbs down on Vasquez, personally
He’s not terribly athletic, and his release is somewhat bizarre. He’s got a good shooting percentage, but that’s due to hitting everything when he’s left open – put a hand in his face, and he can’t hit the floor with a shot. He’s not explosive, doesn’t elevate, and turns the ball over a lot. I’d consider him high-risk, medium-high-reward. If he pans out, he’s a 6’6" PG who creates some horrible mismatches for the other team. If not, he’s Jeryl Sasser.
Honor is no substitute for victory.
I guess he could be good in the right system
But there’s still the “could” part in that sentence.
I write about basketball players with Ridiculous Upside. I know you'll love it.
by Scott Schroeder on May 5, 2010 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't get me wrong, I think Vasquez will and should be drafted
However, the team drafting him should be ready and willing to stash him in the D-League for a couple years – he’ll need to learn a new style, he may be better off learning a new shooting stroke, and I don’t think he’ll do well as an end-of-the-bench guy, because that won’t really give him the opportunity to learn those things. Personally, I’d also want him doing a fair amount of resistance training to build his leg strength. I don’t think he’ll ever be quick, but he could post up smaller guards in the right kind of offense, and lower body strength helps with leverage there.
Honor is no substitute for victory.
Like him in college, don’t think he’ll do anything in the pros. He’s sooooooo slow and can’t beat anybody off the dribble, Jordan Sams included.
by Michael Levin on May 6, 2010 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions
You might as well be high on Lance Stephenson (sp?)
"Left hand, right hand, it doesn't matter. I'm amphibious." - Charles Shackleford
"He’s a stiff." - The Legendary Doug Moe
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
"I really didn't want it, but now that I've won it, it's nice. It's an honor. It's nice to know people don't think you're a total idiot. ... It must have been a poor year for coaches." - Doug Moe...talking about winning 1987-88 Coach of the Year award.
"Keep your head up and don't let anything get to you." - Dante Bichette Jr.
#3 + #6 + #15 + #1 = QPU #25, and no, it's not because of Anthony Carter
How dare you diss Gottlieb
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Tell him to agree with me more
And we wouldn’t have this problem.
I write about basketball players with Ridiculous Upside. I know you'll love it.
by Scott Schroeder on May 5, 2010 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I am as well a Gottliebite. Gottliebian?
by Michael Levin on May 6, 2010 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Are we sure
he is not just playing devil’s advocate?
That said, some of his points are good (Monroe..but is that reall a big knock) but most of them I don’t agree with, especially Vazquez. He just fits the mold of a great college PG but someone who won’t be able to do it in the pros. I kind of expect him to get drafted late second round (if Khalid El-Amin can get drafted, why not?) but don’t expect anything out of him in the NBA.
I'm pretty sure that's the case
But if he’s going to put it out there, may as well look at it.
Also, I know you’re new here, but no Khalid El-Amin bashing.
I write about basketball players with Ridiculous Upside. I know you'll love it.
by Scott Schroeder on May 5, 2010 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Not sure where I bashed him
but okay. I enjoyed watching him play growing up. Just used him to show that guards like him/Vazquez get drafted but don’t always pan out.
Ha
Sorry, it was supposed to come out as a joke. I have a soft spot for El-Amin since this:

I write about basketball players with Ridiculous Upside. I know you'll love it.
by Scott Schroeder on May 5, 2010 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions
If Khalid El-Amin and Mateen Cleaves had a baby, I’d marry that baby.
by Michael Levin on May 6, 2010 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Givony thinks it's the strongest draft class he has seen. I tend to side with him.
Though last year’s turned out stronger than expected. And nothing soon likely beats the LeBron, Melo, Bosh, Wade 2003 crop.
wait for workouts
a lot of these so called experts talk trash before the fact. the success of a lot of these young guys depend on where they get drafted and what style of play the team has. After all of the workouts then people will have a decent idea of how players have improved there bodies and so called problems to their game. But like i stated earlier some of these guys need to be put in the right situation in order to get the max out of their potential. i don’t think their are too many super star talents in this draft after watching a lot of NCAA ball this year.
Actually, I argue that Doug Gottlieb is correct to be down on some of those guys who were mentioned here.
For starters, Daniel Orton has huge bust potential. I liken Orton to another former UK student athlete, Randolph Morris, who also had major fanfare and supposedly colossal upside after just one mediocre season in college. Morris, however, went undrafted — which led to an odd career path that included him regaining NCAA eligibility — while it appears that some team will reach for Orton with a pick in the middle of the first round. I believe that’ll be a mistake, though.
Hell, rather than draft Orton in the first round, a team looking for a project center should nab Dexter Pittman late in the second round. At worst, Pittman will be the American Jawai. Yet, with the right coaching and dedication to staying in shape, Pittman could become the next Kendrick Perkins, although that’s a best-case scenario. I don’t endorse Pittman, however. I’ve got him rated below fellow potential second-rounders like monstrous low-post defender Brian Zoubek (Comparison: Joel Przybilla), rebounding machine Artsiom Parakhouski (Comparison: Zaza Pachulia), high-post 7-footer A.J. Ogilvy (Comparison: Rasho Nesterovic), and Serbian pivotman Miroslav Raduljica (Comparison: Marcin Gortat). As it is, I’ve got Pittman on the same level as Jerome Jordan — whose name is an ironic hybrid of Jerome James and DeAndre Jordan — as well as above complete stiffs like Paulo Prestes (Comparison: Rafael Araujo), Hamady N’diaye (Comparison: Didier Ilunga-Mbenga), Omar Samhan (Comparison: Aaron Gray), et al.
Wesley Johnson scares me, too, as did Jeff Green a few years ago. At Oklahoma City, Green’s relatively short standing reach and lack of girth has left him overmatched at the 4; plus, his so-so speed and agility will make him a poor 3 if he’s ever traded to a team that calls for a position change. Back to Johnson, though, I also fear his supposedly first-rate team defense won’t translate to the NBA; that’s because Syracuse’s 2-3 zone defense is vastly different than the prototypical man-to-man defenses run in the pros. I, moreover, recall that countless folks felt former Syracuse standout Hakim Warrick would be an awesome defender coming out of college, but that didn’t pan out whatsoever due to a variety of reasons.
Man, the Gordon Hayward to Mike Dunleavy, Jr. comparison is right on the money. Both Hayward and Dunleavy, Jr. are smooth, fluid offensive players with good handles; they each prefer to score off the dribble rather than in catch-and-shoot situations, too. The problem, though, is that in spite of having decent handles they’re not really deferential to their teammates. As an advanced stat like Assist Rate shows pretty clearly — which can be found for college players at www.kenpom.com — Hayward doesn’t have what it takes to be a point forward. Hayward, for example, had a paltry 12.1 assist rate last season, while future star Evan Turner had a 37.4 assist rate.
Greg Monroe will likely be a third tier PF in the mold of LaMarcus Aldridge and David West, who are frustrating players to watch at the NBA level. Perhaps it’s because I dislike offensively inefficient, defensively soft pick-and-pop 4s, for I prefer my power forwards to play tough man-to-man defense, rotate soundly to provide necessary weakside help defense, crash the glass on both ends of the court, and settle for shooting jumpers at only 1/2 of the time rather than 2/3 of the time. Instead of Monroe, I’d want a hard-working, polished competitor like Patrick Patterson — who reminds me of a long-armed version of Carl Landry on offense and a young, healthy version of Kenyon Martin on defense — if I was drafting in the late lottery. Yeah, I’d easily select Patterson over Monroe, the raw Ekpe Udoh, the unproven Ed Davis, and the untested Donatas Motiejunas.
by AK1984 on May 6, 2010 4:31 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I couldn’t possibly read all of this, but Landry was much more athletic than Patterson coming out of school. He also disappeared many times this season, deferring to the freshmen to take over the game while he lingered on the outside. He can rebound and finish decently inside, but I don’t see him becoming anything other than a fringe starter or average 6th man.
by Michael Levin on May 6, 2010 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
In college, Carl Landry as a senior at Purdue had a much higher usage/possession % than Patrick ...
Patterson did at Kentucky. So, with regards to Patterson “deferring” to his teammates a fair amount this past season, you’re correct on that account.
http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Kentucky
http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Purdue&y=2007
I, however, wouldn’t consider Patterson being a third wheel behind DeMarcus Cousins and John Wall a bad thing. In that tertiary role, Patterson was still exceptionally efficient — as indicated by his marvelous ORating and high TS% — which should translate well to the NBA.
The only worrisome thing about Patterson this past season was his sizeable dip in DRB%, but I blame that mostly on Cousins just owning the defensive glass. Hell, as we all know, diminishing returns can have an effect on defensive rebounds — http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2008/02/05/diminishing-returns-and-the-value-of-offensive-and-defensive-rebounds/ — which was the case with Patterson.
i like
very insightful analysis on your part
by gunnin' gervin on May 7, 2010 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions

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