Assessing The Top 2022 Senior High Schoolers’ Spring Decisions

If you have been following and reading us for a while now, you know I’ve been running a monthly column in which I’ve covered the last commitments for the upcoming 2021 season coming from the prospects part of the ‘21 HS class of seniors. At the end of May, we covered it for one last time with most prospects already committed and just a few names still to choose their next move (no relevant names among them, though).

With the summer already here, it’s definitely time to fully move on from that class to the 2022 one, starting today. It’s been three months of commitments and developments since the last time we updated you all on the latest decisions coming from ‘22 HS Seniors, so it makes sense to do a final “combined” update before covering the class on a monthly basis.

While there have not been that many players picking teams in the past 90 days, the truth is that this is going to keep heating up as the summer does. Up to 13 top-100 players decided where they want to play next, although we’re still a year away from those kids actually moving, so who knows about the still unknown decommitments, potential injuries, professional opportunities, etc... that might come those kids’ way.

Who Are The Players And Where Do They Come From?

In the last update, which covered almost three-fourths of a year, we covered 10 top-100 prospects. Now, in one-third of that time (from March to June) we have 13 players making decisions on where to play next. As I said, this is only the beginning and the names will start piling up on the commitment board sooner than we realize.

As early as still is in the recruiting/commitment process, we already saw a top-10 player in Dior Johnson make Oregon his school of choice. There is quite a jump in talent from Johnson’s no. 9 rank to the next one in the list (no. 28), but that doesn’t mean this is a bad crop of guys by any means. Six non-Dior players into the top-50 are still here, to go with two more into the top-75 and the remaining five in the 76-to-97 clip. Let’s get to all of them.

The players themselves are listed next, including their national ranking, position, current high school, bio, and star/ovr rating per 247Sports:

One thing and only one thing is clear here: this group of players doesn’t include a player on the talent level of either Emoni Bates and Amari Bailey, which we already covered in our first installment. Now, I have news for you, folks. Bates is not a Michigan Spartan commit anymore, and while Baily is the no. 3 player of the ‘22 class, the truth is that no. 9 Dior Johnson is not far from him. In fact, Dior is the no. 1 true-point-guard among Seniors while Bailey is the no. 1 combo-guard, and the two of them are, obviously, the top-2 players from California. Not bad, indeed.

Syracuse is the only college getting a couple of kids ranked among the top-100 of their class in the past three months, while no other school got their hands in more than one and no player opted to go the professional route—understandable this early in the process, though.

Have Those High Schools Any Track Record Of Top-Player Production?

Dior Johnson’s path to the NCAA—if/when he makes it—is going to see him play for as many as seven (!!!) high schools, from Oak Hill to IMG Academy, Findlay Prep, Fairfax, Mayfair, and now Centennial. It’s an absolutely crazy amateur career, but let’s focus on Centennial (CA) as that’s where Dior will ball before moving on to the NCAA circuit. The Cali prep has not produced top-tier talent to date, and only Ike Anigbogu in 2016 and Jalen Hill in 2017 were ranked into their respective classes’ top-100. Until Dior arrived in town, that is, as he’s now clearly the main name into the history books of the school.

As many as 54 ranked players have come out of Sunrise Christian (KS) going back to 2010 when they first got a kid into the national board. Those days are more than a decade away, and what was then a 255th-ranked kid in Raphael Akpejiori is now the top-28 senior of the 2022 class in Gradey Dick—quite the jump in talent. And that’s not even the best, though: Sunrise Christian has also the 12th best player (small forward Mark Mitchell) in its roster, who has yet to commit.

Not a lot of players can call Compass Prep (AZ) home, and none of them got ranked before the year 2018. That being said, though, the production has been rather good in the past two years with three (including no. 19 and no. 34 of the 2022 class) top-35 prospects in the 247Sports Composite ranks. The prior-best kid to come out of Compass was no. 116 of 2018 Both Gach.

Prolific Prep (CA) has put out talent in bunches yearly starting in 2017. The names would make for a monster squad at high school level from that season on: Gray Trent Jr., Jordan Brown, Jalen Green, Nimari Burnett, Nathan Bittle, and Mouhamed Gueye just to name a few top-50 prospects. All of those are expected to be joined in the commitment sheet by five (!) top-70 prospects from the 2022 class, including already-committed no. 37 Kamari Lands and top-16 player Adem Bona, still to choose his next place.

We all know everything there is to know about Montverde Academy (FL) because the prep is almost a monthly lock to appear in this column. This update, although containing the Florida school, does so in a different way as Justice Williams is the kid coming out of it—by the way of Philadelphia. That’s Williams’ hometown and one has to acknowledge Philly’s levels of production: even though Williams is the 42nd-best prospect of 2022, he’s only the 11th-best player from the state of PA. Bonkers. Of course, Montverde also boasts the no. 1 talent in the nation in center Jalen Duren, still to commit to any college.

New Jersey’s St. Peters Prep (NJ) only got to rank one player nationally—back in 2015—when Amarveer Singh made it to the 188th spot in 247Sports Composite list. He went on to play for Seton Hall, a different place than no. 43 Mark Armstrong’s chose earlier this year after committing to Villanova as the no. 2 prospect to come out of NJ in 2022.

The 48th-best prospect of the 2022 class, Seth Trimble, barely out-ranked Menomonee Falls (WI) prior-best talent in J.P. Tokoto (no. 65) though it took 10 years (!!!) for the Wisconsin prep to have someone as talented in its squad. Only two other of its players got ranked in that span, none of them above the 250th spot.

Perry (AZ) will have its second-ever ranked player in no. 62 Dylan Anderson, who is joining no. 226 of 2019 Jalen Williams as the only two players to come out of Perry nationally ranked. St. Anne’s-Belfield School (VA) is in the same situation, with no. 64 Justin Taylor only the second player to come out of the prep. It must be said, though, that the other one is still the best of the two as Javin DeLaurier went on to play for Duke and after not getting drafted in 2020 he is now playing in Canada.

Not a lot to say about Calvary Christian Academy (FL), which has put out a few players since 2017 but none of them as highly touted as no. 76 Taylor Hendricks. In fact, all three members of the squad part of the 2022 class rank higher than any of the prior three players that made it to the 247Sports Composite ranks.

The last time we heard any hoops news coming from Coppell (TX) it was more than 15 (!) years ago when they were able to rank their third player nationally in no. 450 Trevor Cook. Nothing to call home about, folks. No names graced the board until now when two players from the 2022 class of seniors are ranked inside the top-95 talents of the class. Ryan Agarwal might be a borderline top-100 prospect, sure, but Coppell also has the 40th-best kid—Anthony Black—in its squad and not committed to any college yet.

No ranked prospects (as always using 247Sports Composite ranks and data) have ever come out of St. Peters Prep (NJ), Bishop McLaughlin (FL), Caledonia (MN), or Greenhill School (TX).

And The Most Important Thing... Where Are They Going To Play College Ball?

Here is the recruiting leaderboard from the past five years—which includes the senior HS classes from 2018 to 2022 and only accounts for top-50 players in their respective years, updated to include this month’s decisions:

• 18 Commits - Kentucky
• 17 - Duke
• 9 - North Carolina
• 7 - LSU
• 6 - Tennessee, Ohio State, Kansas, Texas, Oregon, Michigan, Florida, Gonzaga, Memphis
• 5-to-1 - 48 Total Colleges
• Prep-to-Pros: 5 players

Kentucky and Duke are clearly the top two universities at getting (top) talent. On average, Kentucky has gotten 3.5+ top-50 players per class in each of the past five years. Duke with virtually the same amount, is on par with the Wildcats. The problem for the Dukies, though, is that they’re waving goodbye to long-tenured HC Mike Krzyzewski, which could have an immense impact on the college’s recruiting ways and success. We’ll see.

So, have things been different during the past few weeks when it comes to college commitments? Here is how the last month ended looking like:

• 2 Prospects added — Syracuse
• 1 — Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, LSU, North Carolina, Oregon, Stanford, UCF, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova

With no kids opting to choose the professional route this early in the process during the past 90 days, it was all about NCAA colleges bulking up their rosters with high school names. Syracuse was also the only school to get itself more than one top-100 prospect in the past three months, enough to get to the no. 4 spot in the 2022 team ranks.

Ohio State, while not landing a single prospect in the span covered here, still was able to retain the no. 1 rank at the top of the class. UCLA and Kansas close the top-3 teams at this point, both of them landing a top-100 prospect of late.

Among the rest of the colleges landing talent here, all of LSU, North Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Iowa State are inside the top-10 teams in the nation, although none of them have a five-star kid in their commitment lists. That’s Oregon’s case, though, which added no. 9 Dior Johnson and now sits on the 11th position in the 2022 team ranks.

Shouts out to Arizona, Houston, Stanford, UCF, and Villanova for landing their first four-star prospects in 2022!